High RiskUS
Source: EPAUS emissions are declining but remain dangerously high, creating a window for policy backsliding and delayed decarbonization costs.
Risk Level
Current emissions decline is meaningful but insufficient to meet climate targets, creating a multi-decade underfunded decarbonization problem that exposes capital, operations, and investor portfolios.
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Trend Summary
US greenhouse gas emissions peaked in 2022 at 6597 MMT CO2e, then declined 3.8 percent over the next three years to 6198 MMT CO2e in 2025. This downward trend reflects recent climate policy implementation and energy market shifts, but the absolute emissions level remains 3 percent above 2021 baseline and far above net-zero targets.
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5-Year Projection
If the current decline rate of approximately 130 MMT CO2e per year continues, US emissions could reach 5800 MMT CO2e by 2030. However, this trajectory falls short of the 50 percent reductions required by 2030 under the Paris Agreement, indicating acceleration in decarbonization must occur or emissions reductions will stall.
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Asset Exposure
Carbon-intensive infrastructure, fossil fuel assets, and long-lived industrial facilities face regulatory risk and stranded asset potential if decline rates accelerate post-2025. Energy transition-dependent sectors, including utilities, transportation, and real estate portfolios with high-carbon lease agreements, carry execution risk if policy support weakens.
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Forward Signal, Next 12 Months
Monitor whether the 2025 decline rate sustains or accelerates into 2026; any reversal or plateau signals policy failure or structural emissions stagnation.
Assessment generated Oct 20, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC
This is the aggregate US picture.
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Live total us greenhouse gas emissions in mmt co2e