High RiskUS
Source: EPAUS emissions remain stuck above 6.3 gigatons annually despite climate commitments, with volatility masking lack of structural decarbonization.
Risk Level
Stalled national emissions reduction combined with policy uncertainty and high baseline emissions levels create material climate policy and transition risk for carbon-dependent assets over the next five years.
📈
Trend Summary
US greenhouse gas emissions spiked 3.2% from 2021 to 2022, then declined modestly through 2024, but remain 0.8% above 2021 levels. The pattern shows cyclical fluctuation rather than sustained reduction—a rebound in 2022 followed by marginal cuts that have not yet returned to baseline, indicating economy-wide decarbonization has stalled.
🔭
5-Year Projection
If the current trend continues, US emissions will oscillate within the 6.3–6.6 gigatonne range over the next five years without achieving material declines. This volatility suggests emissions reductions are driven by economic cycles and policy implementation lags rather than permanent shifts in energy systems or industrial capacity.
🏗️
Asset Exposure
Carbon-intensive industries including power generation, heavy manufacturing, and fossil fuel infrastructure face increasing regulatory and financial pressure, while companies dependent on carbon pricing mechanisms or emissions allowances face margin pressure from policy uncertainty. Investors in coal, natural gas, and oil-dependent assets carry stranded asset risk if federal or state climate mandates accelerate beyond current trajectories.
⚡
Forward Signal, Next 12 Months
Watch whether 2025 emissions trend down or rebound again; two consecutive years of sustained decline would signal structural decarbonization, while renewed increases would confirm emissions are locked in absent major policy intervention.
Assessment generated Jun 2, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC
This is the aggregate US picture.
Your exposure depends on where your assets are, what type they are, and what decisions you are responsible for. Build a risk report specific to your situation.
Build My Risk Report →See the underlying data
Live total us greenhouse gas emissions in mmt co2e