US emissions have stalled at historically high levels with insufficient downward momentum to meet climate targets.

US greenhouse gas emissions spiked to 6597 MMT CO2e in 2022, then declined modestly to 6343 MMT CO2e by 2024. The net change over four years is a decrease of only 50 MMT CO2e—roughly 0.8% total—representing a near-flat trajectory rather than the steep decarbonization curve required by climate policy and corporate commitments. The current path shows marginal year-to-year volatility around a persistently elevated baseline.

If the current trend continues, US emissions will remain essentially flat or oscillate within a narrow band of 6300-6600 MMT CO2e through 2029. This means cumulative emissions over the next five years will be 15-20% higher than they would need to be under a 50% reduction pathway by 2030. Without structural acceleration in decarbonization, the US will miss its stated NDC and corporate net-zero targets.

Fossil fuel-intensive infrastructure, power generation assets, industrial facilities, and transportation networks dependent on carbon-intensive operations face regulatory risk, stranded asset risk, and carbon pricing exposure. Companies with science-based emissions reduction targets and climate commitments to investors are exposed to target miss risk, shareholder litigation, and financial restatement risk.