US temperatures are accelerating toward 1.3°C+ above baseline, driven by sustained warming that outpaces historical norms.

US temperature anomalies have risen sharply from 0.85°C in 2021 to 1.29°C in 2024, with a five-year average acceleration of roughly 0.11°C per year. The 2023-to-2024 jump of 0.12°C represents the steepest single-year increase in this dataset, signaling a shift from gradual warming to more rapid change. Even the slight 2025 dip to 1.19°C remains well above the 2021-2022 baseline.

If the current trajectory continues, US temperature anomalies will likely stabilize or advance further into the 1.2–1.4°C range over the next five years, with occasional years potentially exceeding 1.3°C. The risk of a sustained baseline shift to 1.3°C or higher becomes material by 2029-2030. Reversals are possible but would require significant atmospheric or climate pattern changes; the underlying trend remains firmly upward.

Water-intensive infrastructure, agriculture, and insurance portfolios face acute risk from heat stress, drought intensification, and extreme weather frequency at 1.2–1.3°C warming. Thermal power plants, outdoor labor productivity, and cooling-dependent supply chains become costlier to operate and harder to insure as anomalies exceed 1.2°C.