High RiskUS
Source: NASA GISS

US temperature anomalies have surged to 1.19°C above historical baseline, with four consecutive years of warming acceleration creating sustained heat stress on infrastructure and operations.

Risk Level

Four years of sustained anomalies above 0.85°C with peaks near 1.3°C now represents operational reality, not an outlier, forcing immediate adaptation decisions across capital-intensive infrastructure.

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Trend Summary

The past five years show a sharp acceleration in temperature anomaly, rising from 0.85°C in 2021 to 1.28°C in 2024 before moderating slightly to 1.19°C in 2025. The overall trajectory is unmistakably upward, with the 2024 peak representing a 0.34°C jump from 2021—a rate of warming that concentrates climate stress into a compressed timeframe rather than distributing it gradually.
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5-Year Projection

If the current trend persists, anomalies are likely to remain elevated in the 1.1-1.3°C range over the next five years, with risk of new peaks in warm years. The plateau at elevated levels rather than a return to historical baselines means asset operators should plan for persistent heat stress as the new operating environment, not a temporary spike.
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Asset Exposure

Power grids, water infrastructure, and cooling systems face compounding stress from sustained demand surges; agricultural operations and supply chains dependent on temperature-sensitive inputs face recurring yield and logistics disruption. These assets were engineered and financed around historical climate baselines that no longer reflect actual conditions.

Forward Signal, Next 12 Months

Monitor whether 2026-2027 temperatures return toward the 2025 level or continue climbing—a sustained move above 1.3°C would signal entry into a permanently hotter regime requiring urgent capital reallocation.

Assessment generated Jul 20, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

This is the aggregate US picture.

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See the underlying data

Live global surface temperature anomaly vs. 1850–1900 baseline

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