High RiskUS
Source: NASA GISSUS temperature anomalies are accelerating toward 1.3°C above baseline, driving cascading heat stress across infrastructure and agriculture.
Risk Level
A sustained 1.2°C+ anomaly crosses established climate thresholds for significant operational disruption and represents a departure from the conditions under which most critical infrastructure was designed.
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Trend Summary
Temperature anomalies rose from 0.85°C in 2021 to 1.28°C in 2024, a 50% increase in just three years. The pattern shows consistent upward movement with only a modest dip in 2025, indicating the warming trend remains intact and structural rather than cyclical.
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5-Year Projection
If this trajectory continues, US temperature anomalies will likely remain in the 1.2–1.4°C range through 2030, with occasional peaks above 1.3°C becoming the new normal. This sustained elevation will intensify heat waves, extend growing-season volatility, and compound stress on water and electrical systems already operating at capacity margins.
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Asset Exposure
Agricultural operations face repeated yield risks from heat stress and altered precipitation patterns, while electrical grids and water infrastructure designed for historical temperature ranges will experience higher peak demand and lower operating efficiency. Real estate and infrastructure in heat-sensitive regions—particularly the Southwest, Southeast, and urban cores—face accelerated depreciation and increased insurance costs.
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Forward Signal, Next 12 Months
Watch whether 2026 remains above 1.2°C anomaly; a sustained plateau at this level confirms the new thermal baseline and eliminates hope of natural reversion.
Assessment generated Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
This is the aggregate US picture.
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Live global surface temperature anomaly vs. 1850–1900 baseline