High RiskUS
Source: NASA GISSUS temperature anomalies have surged to 1.19°C above historical baseline, with four consecutive years of warming acceleration creating sustained heat stress on infrastructure and operations.
Risk Level
Four years of sustained anomalies above 0.85°C with peaks near 1.3°C now represents operational reality, not an outlier, forcing immediate adaptation decisions across capital-intensive infrastructure.
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Trend Summary
The past five years show a sharp acceleration in temperature anomaly, rising from 0.85°C in 2021 to 1.28°C in 2024 before moderating slightly to 1.19°C in 2025. The overall trajectory is unmistakably upward, with the 2024 peak representing a 0.34°C jump from 2021—a rate of warming that concentrates climate stress into a compressed timeframe rather than distributing it gradually.
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5-Year Projection
If the current trend persists, anomalies are likely to remain elevated in the 1.1-1.3°C range over the next five years, with risk of new peaks in warm years. The plateau at elevated levels rather than a return to historical baselines means asset operators should plan for persistent heat stress as the new operating environment, not a temporary spike.
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Asset Exposure
Power grids, water infrastructure, and cooling systems face compounding stress from sustained demand surges; agricultural operations and supply chains dependent on temperature-sensitive inputs face recurring yield and logistics disruption. These assets were engineered and financed around historical climate baselines that no longer reflect actual conditions.
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Forward Signal, Next 12 Months
Monitor whether 2026-2027 temperatures return toward the 2025 level or continue climbing—a sustained move above 1.3°C would signal entry into a permanently hotter regime requiring urgent capital reallocation.
Assessment generated Jul 20, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
This is the aggregate US picture.
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Live global surface temperature anomaly vs. 1850–1900 baseline