High RiskUS
Source: NIFC

Wildfire burn acreage is surging to record levels with 2024 showing the second-highest acreage on record and fire frequency accelerating.

Risk Level

2024 broke near-record acreage with the highest fire count in the dataset, signaling a shift to a more aggressive fire regime that threatens significant assets and operational continuity across multiple sectors.

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Trend Summary

From 2021 through 2023, wildfire acreage ranged between 2.5 and 7.4 million acres annually with moderate volatility. In 2024, burned acreage jumped to 8.35 million acres—the highest in this dataset—while fire count climbed to 6,719, the most fires recorded. The 2025 data showing only 44,151 acres across 18 fires reflects incomplete seasonal data and does not indicate improvement.
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5-Year Projection

If current trends continue, annual wildfire acreage is moving toward the 8+ million acre range as a new baseline, with increasing fire frequency driving higher risk of catastrophic seasons. The 2024 spike signals that conditions favoring large burns are intensifying, and successive high-acreage years will compound cumulative risk to ecosystems, infrastructure, and communities.
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Asset Exposure

Real estate, timber operations, electrical transmission infrastructure, and agricultural holdings across western and wildland-interface regions face direct exposure to accelerating burn risk. Insurance portfolios covering property in fire-prone zones and supply chains dependent on forest resources face mounting losses and coverage constraints.

Forward Signal — Next 12 Months

Monitor whether 2025 fire season acreage tracks above the 7-8 million acre threshold; sustained high burns in consecutive years will confirm a structural shift in wildfire risk requiring capital reallocation and risk transfer strategy changes.

Assessment generated Apr 16, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC

This is the aggregate US picture.

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See the underlying data

Live year-to-date acres burned and fire count

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